The key factors are: demographic decline; the unsustainability of the social democratic state; and civilizational exhaustion.
Let’s start with demography, because everything does: If your school has 200 guys and you’re playing a school with 2,000 pupils, it doesn’t mean your baseball team is definitely going to lose but it certainly gives the other fellows a big starting advantage.
11, 2001, was not “the day everything changed,” but the day that revealed how much had already changed. 10, how many journalists had the Council of American-Islamic Relations or the Canadian Islamic Congress or the Muslim Council of Britain in their Rolodexes?
If you’d said that whether something does or does not cause offence to Muslims would be the early 21st century’s principal political dynamic in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and the United Kingdom, most folks would have thought you were crazy.
As I say, this isn’t a projection: it’s happening now.
What’s happening in the developed world is one of the fastest demographic evolutions in history: most of us have seen a gazillion heartwarming ethnic comedies — My Big Fat Greek Wedding and its ilk — in which some uptight WASPy type starts dating a gal from a vast loving fecund Mediterranean family, so abundantly endowed with sisters and cousins and uncles that you can barely get in the room. Greece has a fertility rate hovering just below 1.3 births per couple, which is what demographers call the point of “lowest-low” fertility from which no human society has ever recovered.
And Greece’s fertility is the healthiest in Mediterranean Europe: Italy has a fertility rate of 1.2, Spain 1.1.
Likewise, if you want to launch a revolution, it’s not very likely if you’ve only got seven revolutionaries. But, if you’ve got two million and seven revolutionaries and they’re all under 30 you’re in business.
Insofar as any citizens of the developed world have “big” families these days, it’s the anglo democracies: America’s fertility rate is 2.1, New Zealand a little below.
Hollywood should be making My Big Fat Uptight Protestant Wedding in which some sad Greek only child marries into a big heartwarming New Zealand family where the spouse actually has a sibling.
Any analysis of the “Palestinian problem” that doesn’t take into account the most important determinant on the ground is a waste of time.
Likewise, the salient feature of Europe, Canada, Japan and Russia is that they’re running out of babies.
Yet on that Tuesday morning the top of the iceberg bobbed up and toppled the Twin Towers.
This is about the seven-eighths below the surface — the larger forces at play in the developed world that have left Europe too enfeebled to resist its remorseless transformation into Eurabia and that call into question the future of much of the rest of the world.